Right now, the data from last holiday season should be telling you that broader performance metrics, not just revenue, reveal execution quality.
To see the full picture, brands must assess collective changes in ROAS, CPMs, conversion rate, email performance, AOV, audience behavior, and creative performance.
These interconnected signals are pivotal to developing the right holiday marketing strategy in 2026. Brands enter Q4 well-positioned when they consider media, creative, offer, and programmatic targeting signals during decision-making.
At Cake, we’ve seen firsthand that shifting from reactive guesswork to predictive execution makes all the difference. The same rule applies to connecting programmatic, email, and creative data into one strategic interpretation.
Moving forward, we’ll thoroughly review the logistics of this. We’ll also explore which patterns ought to influence your holiday marketing strategy in 2026 and how brands can determine what to scale.
What should brands look at in last year’s holiday data?
In last year’s holiday data, brands should look at five useful data points: ROAS by channel, email open/click rates by sequence phase, CPM trends across October/November/December, conversion rates by creative type, and AOV by audience segment.
Real insight comes from connecting these metrics, rather than reading them in isolation. With a full picture of consumer behavior, brands can ensure their seasonal tactics align with AI holiday shopping trends, while still maximizing holiday revenue.
According to Google, buyers are increasingly leaning into conversational AI assistants for holiday gift shopping and price comparisons.
| Data point | What to look at |
|---|---|
| ROAS by channel | Which channels drove efficient revenue versus simply the most revenue? |
| Email open and click rates by sequence phase | Where did engagement peak, and did that engagement actually translate into revenue? |
| CPM trends across October, November, and December | Did media become significantly more expensive as competition increased? |
| Conversion rate by creative type | Which formats, messages, or concepts actually converted? |
| AOV by audience segment | Which audiences generated the most valuable orders? |
What three patterns in holiday data should change your 2026 strategy?
Strong Black Friday/weak Cyber Monday performance, high email revenue/weak paid performance, and low October CPMs/November spikes are three patterns in holiday data that should change your 2026 strategy.
Comprising early holiday shopping data, these patterns reveal critical consumer behavioral shifts. Brands can then leverage this insight when determining channel strategies and budget allocation.
What does strong Black Friday performance but weak Cyber Monday performance mean?
Strong Black Friday performance followed by weak Cyber Monday performance means the former’s offer, urgency, or audience resonated more strongly. When building a holiday marketing strategy in 2026, brands shouldn’t assume what worked on Black Friday can work on Cyber Monday.
Amid making changes, examine timing and audience saturation. Don’t forget to take offer strength and creative differences into account.
What does high email revenue but weak paid performance mean?
High email revenue with weak paid performance means the former converted well, while the latter struggled with capturing or generating incremental demand.
This is a huge deal for first-party data holiday marketing. As brands shape their 2026 strategy, they’ll benefit from investigating paid audience quality, creative, and offer approach. Simply treating total holiday revenue as proof of channel success won’t fix the broader problem.
What do low October CPMs followed by November spikes mean?
Low October CPMs followed by November spikes mean October likely offered cheaper opportunities to build awareness, audiences, and behavioral signals. Appropriately changing your holiday marketing strategy in 2026 requires using October to build audiences and collect signals ahead of peak auction pressure.
How can last year’s audience data improve this year’s programmatic targeting?
Behavioral signals from 2025’s holiday buyers are how last year’s audience data can improve this year’s programmatic targeting. These buyers aren’t just historical customer lists. They’re also active blueprints for current intent.
As you integrate programmatic targeting into your holiday marketing strategy in 2026, it’s important to analyze data from five specific groups:
- Prior-year holiday buyers
- High-AOV purchasers
- Repeat purchasers
- Product/category purchasers
- Engaged non-buyers
Look at it this way: when smaller audience segments produce fewer purchases with much higher AOV, this audience may be worth prioritizing over the largest buyer segments.
A holiday marketing strategy in 2026 that uses 2025’s audience data to improve this year’s programmatic targeting demands three important questions:
- Who converted?
- What did they respond to?
- Which creative/offer combinations drove that behavior?
Here at Cake, we help brands connect these signals rather than treating programmatic like a standalone channel.
What does “winning” holiday data actually look like?
Winning holiday data actually looks like completing cross-channel analysis instead of single-channel performance reports. All too often, one metric looks successful as the underlying business outcome deteriorates.
As brands navigate first-party data holiday marketing, they must know the core differences between what’s readily seen vs. what needs to be asked.
| Brands may see | What they should actually ask |
|---|---|
| Revenue increased | Did ROAS increase too? |
| Open rates were high | Did revenue per email increase? |
| Black Friday broke records | Was the growth efficient and incremental? |
| October CPMs were low | Did that efficiency translate into conversions? |
| A creative generated lots of clicks | Did it generate purchases? |
| Customer acquisition increased | Which audiences produced the highest-value customers? |
How can brands identify the creative and offer combinations worth scaling?
Brands can identify the creative and offer combinations worth scaling by evaluating creative alongside the audience and offer. More specifically, this means pinpointing combinations that overperformed on conversion rate, ROAS, AOV, and revenue.
These performance metrics don’t just determine what’s worth scaling. They also afford key insights into consumers’ behavior and preferences.
With this information, brands can then optimize their product positioning, future messaging, and holiday marketing strategy in 2026.
Case in point: your larger discounts may have generated more conversions, while product-led creative with smaller incentives garnered fewer orders, but from higher-value customers.
Whether you’re reviewing early holiday shopping data or AI holiday shopping trends, the bottom line still stands: knowing what to scale requires multiple creative executions, rather than simply copying last year’s ad.
What is the holiday halo effect?
The holiday halo effect is a post-holiday period when newly acquired customers either become repeat buyers or decline to return.
This halo of opportunities for brands can last for 30 to 90 days. However, the timeframe typically depends on the brand’s normal repurchase cycle and broader customer behavior.
How should brands turn last year’s findings into a 2026 holiday plan?
Turning last year’s findings into a 2026 holiday plan requires tactical targeting, spending, creation, and measurement.
Activating prior-year buyers and behavioral signals in programmatic strategy goes a long way. So does using CPM and ROAS trends to identify the right investment shifts.
Remember to optimize first-party data holiday marketing that scales creative while offering high-converting combinations. Finally, brands’ holiday marketing strategy in 2026 should prioritize efficiency, AOV, conversion, and downstream value.
Source: Circana
Cake’s pivotal partnerships help brands see how last year’s holiday campaigns can help drive scale and efficient revenue. Book a call with us now to optimize a high-yield Q4 plan.
FAQs
What if we don’t have clean data from last year?
If you don’t have clean data from last year, start analyzing the most reliable directional signals available and avoid over-interpreting incomplete data.
How far back should we look at holiday data?
You should look at the most recent holiday data first, then look further back to determine if patterns are recurring or if they’re just one-year anomalies.
What is the single most important metric to prioritize if we can only track one thing?
ROAS is the single most important metric to prioritize if you can only track one thing, but ROAS in isolation can’t reveal customer quality, AOV, retention, or incrementality.
How can prior-year buyers improve programmatic targeting?
Prior-year buyers can improve programmatic targeting through their meaningful purchase behaviors, which can then inform current-year audience strategy.
Should brands simply repeat last year’s winning creative?
Brands should not simply repeat last year’s winning creative, but should identify the combination of audience/creative/offer/timing that drove the win.
